Sunday, September 26, 2010

The latest political poll still shows a huge advantage to National - what does it mean

Philip Bruce Goff, current Leader of the Oppos...Image via Wikipedia

NZ Political Party: Cold Shower For Labour In Latest Poll - what does it mean?

(April 29th, 2010)

Labour leader Phil Goff grudgingly admitted this week John Key is a “slick operator.” In damning his opponent with faint praise Goff was seeking to explain Key’s popularity, as distinct from his own lack of it. The latest TVNZ-Colmar Brunton poll rated Key at 48% against Goff’s 8%, suggesting even some Labour supporters prefer Key as PM to the Opposition leader. Given Goff has been in Parliament for 26 years, 15 of them as Minister, his rating remains a conundrum his party may have to wrestle with for some time. Opposition MPs had been confident the public was becoming disenchanted with the Govt because of the prospective GST rise, plans to mine the conservation estate and the re-opening of the foreshore & seabed issue.

But the Colmar-Brunton sampling gave them a cold shower. National support is still around 54%, which indicated it has bounced up from the Roy Morgan poll earlier in the month, a track followed by National’s own polling. Labour remained static at 33%, and the gap is so large it adds to pressure on Labour’s hierarchy to find new answers which differentiate it not only from National, but from the legacy of the Clark Govt. Given Jim Anderton is getting set to leave Parliament (possibly to contest the Christchurch mayoralty), the Green Party has lost its greenest champion in Jeanette Fitzsimons, Winston Peters has joined the grey brigade, thousands of votes may be looking for a fresh home at the next election. But Labour in its present shape doesn’t look capable of capturing them.

Please go to:   For my discussion on this poll:

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